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A growing body of evidence has been mounting that suggests that over the coming decade, people entering the job market armed with nothing but a high school degree will face such dim employment prospects that they will be crowded out of the middle class.

A recent study from Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce, for instance, projected that by 2018, some 63 percent of all U.S. jobs will require some postsecondary education or training. And those that don't are expected to see wages, in many cases already low, stagnate or decline.

For job-seekers who failed to complete high school, the situation is that much bleaker. That's why education policy makers, advocacy and nonprofit groups and others have been working to elevate the graduation rate among U.S. high school students, but progress has been slow going, and, in recent years, downright discouraging.

However, a new analysis from the Research Center of the Editorial Projects in Education (EPE), the nonprofit group that publishes Education Week, in its annual "Diplomas Count" report, paints a more hopeful picture, reporting a national graduation rate of 71.7 percent in 2008, the most recent year for which Department of Education data are available.

That figure marks a reversal of two preceding years of declining or flat rates, and the highest graduation level in public schools since the 1980's, according to the data cited by EdWeek.org.

Despite graduate-rate rebound, dropout rates still high

At the same time, the EPE warns that the dropout rate remains unsustainably high, forecasting that 1.2 million students in the current year's high school class will not attain a diploma.

For the decade preceding 2008, the U.S. graduation rate ticked up 6.1 percent. A breakdown along ethnic lines shows that all groups have shared in this rise, though not in equal measure. While Asian-Americans, at 83 percent, and whites at 78 percent led the way, African-American students posted the largest gain among all ethnic groups, narrowing the graduation gap with white students by two percentage points, with a rate of 57 percent. But despite that modest improvement, the EPE still warns of the wide gaps separating the ethnic groups with the highest graduation rates from the others, including Latinos (57.6 percent) and American Indians (53.9 percent).

Along gender lines, a seven percentage point gap preserved the longstanding disparity between male and female graduation rates. In 2008, 68 percent of male students graduated from high school, compared to 75 percent of female students.

Among other trends, the EPE found that schools in suburban districts outperform their urban counterparts in graduation rate by a measure of 76 percent to 64 percent.

The group also warned of the wide gulf between the highest-performing states and the lowest, a swing just shy of 44 percentage points. New Jersey led the country with a graduation rate of 86.9 percent, while the District of Columbia brought up the rear, graduating just 43 percent of its high school students. Roughly half of all states fall within five percentage points of the national average of 72 percent.

The urban-suburban disconnect was nowhere more visible than in the D.C. metropolitan area. Two surrounding counties, Montgomery in Maryland and Fairfax in Virginia, led the nation among large counties in graduation rates at first and second, respectively, both topping 85 percent. That mark is more than 50 points higher than the gradation rate in Detroit, the lowest-scoring district.

The career benefits of sub-baccalaureate education

The new EPE report does nothing to dispel the linkage between postsecondary education and success in the workforce, most commonly characterized by salary.

"The observation that more schooling is economically beneficial is so widely accepted that it prompts little further reflection," writes EdWeek.org's Christopher Swanson. "And indeed, each successive level of education completed or credential acquired does ratchet up earnings."

But the researchers observed that often in policy discussions the role of high schools in preparing students for what comes next turns on the presumption of college preparation, typically understood as a traditional four-year baccalaureate program. But that runs the risk of ignoring the numerous (and growing) postsecondary alternatives that can be found in certificate programs, associate's degrees and other career and technical training options.

For graduating high-school seniors, better career data paired with various educational paths can be invaluable as they mull their next steps. Through an analysis of information collected in the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, the EPE found that 39 percent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 54, deemed "prime working age," have no more than a high-school diploma. A roughly even split of the remainder has either a bachelor's degree or some postsecondary education.

Salaries predictably increase with higher levels of educational attainment. Adult workers who have not completed high school earned a median income of $12,000 in 2009, compared with high school graduates, who netted about $22,000. Workers with any level of sub-baccalaureate education, including an associate's degree, earned nearly $30,000, while bachelor's degree holders earned around $50,000.

But within those broad educational categories, typical incomes varied widely among professions. Indeed, the EPE found that more than 25 percent of adults with an associate's degree earn salaries on par or above the median income of the bachelor's degree holders.

"Put another way, substantial numbers of less-than-B.A. workers enjoy economic benefits comparable to those with a four-year college degree," Swanson said.

The EPE research identified 50 occupations with a labor force comprised of a majority of workers who have completed some sub-baccalaureate instruction, but have not earned a four-year degree.

For 2009, the 12 top earning professions in that category as measured by median income were:

1. First-line supervisors/managers of firefighting and prevention workers ($72,647)

2. Air-traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists ($70,045)

3. Radiation therapists ($67,432)

4. Firefighters ($59,969)

5. Police officers ($57,970)

6. Electrical and electronics repairers, transportation equipment, and industrial and utility ($54,334)

7. First-line enlisted military supervisors/managers ($53,972)

8. Fire inspectors ($52,324)

9. Funeral directors ($50,575)

10. First-line supervisors/managers of correctional officers ($49,974)

11. Postal service clerks ($49,974)

12. Aircraft mechanics and service technicians ($49,974)

For related coverage from Schools.com, see:

• Report examines impact of financial aid policies on low-income college students
• Focus on skills, sub-baccalaureate programs can help meet postsecondary ed shortfall
• Degree value in dollars: It pays to be unpopular (infographic)
• How to choose a career-focused education (infographic)